We are still waiting for Trump-Kim summit, but ever since North and South Korea reached an agreement, we are more positive towards the upcoming meeting. However, don’t forget that it could still go wrong, no matter what has happened previously. The main topic of the summit will be the denuclearization of North Korea, and it can be divided into four major steps, according to The National Interest.
Donald Trump and Kim Jong-Un will meet on June 12 in Singapore. This was science fiction just a few years ago, even a few months ago, but this is happening. The United States has been on the brink of war with NK, but now the tables have turned, and finally, something positive is occurring at the world scene. We are not so sure why this summit is taking place at this point. Trump’s military threats could have forced Kim behind the table, but he was threatened before by Obama, and he didn’t want to discuss the matter. On the other hand, leader of the rogue state has built an incredible nuclear arsenal, and this confidence might be the reason he wants to meet with POTUS. There is more than just one factor, but the important thing is that the meeting will be held.
As we have already said, this summit could be the utter failure, and there is a possibility that Trump might accept a poor deal for the United States. Although the US will request nothing else but the complete denuclearization, don’t expect the North Korean leader to agree with it and get nothing in return. Kim will have requests as well, and it is probably something America will not adore, but a compromise needs to be made. For North Koreans, the nuclear program is something that has kept their country safe, and it is a legacy passed on from one generation to another, from Kim’s grandfather to Kim’s father and now to Kim.
We believe that Kim is entering the talks because he is an intelligent man. He recognized that none of the other leaders survived the war with the United States, but also none of the leaders, such as Gaddafi or Saddam Hussein, had nuclear bombs. The people and the US government needs to be aware that denuclearization is a process and it will take some time for North Korea to implement it. America needs to be careful not to give too much to Kim because, in the past, North Korea exploited the deals and agreements they signed. The entire process of denuclearization can be divided into four significant steps, and they are listed below:
• Freeze testing – The first phase of the process is crucial. Pyongyang needs to freeze the testing as well as the production of the nuclear arsenal, and they have agreed to do so in Kim’s meeting with the South Korean president earlier in the year.
• Cap arsenal – In the second stage, North Korea needs to stop with the production of highly enriched uranium and plutonium as well.
• Dismantling infrastructure – All nuclear infrastructure is to be dismantled. This is a crucial step because, without it, North Korea will not be able to produce enriched uranium and plutonium and to further improve the long-range missiles.
• Disarm – Last, but the most important step is the actual denuclearization. During this stage, North Korea is to extract all of the missile materials out of the country, and nothing must be kept.
There is no better way to approach the problem. Asking North Koreans to immediately give up their nuclear weapons would be a suicidal mission, and they would most likely refuse. Currently, we are at the stage one which has been achieved partially, and that is why America needs to be careful. The process of denuclearization is underway, and they must not rush it at any cost and create a counter-effect. The further we go regarding the four steps, the better it will be for the world. We would consider the mission to be successful if first three of the mentioned steps would be completed. Trump could leave the ultimate disarmament for later, mainly because North Korea would lose much of their power when they reach that point.
Let’s not be fooled – the United States needs to be generous and offer something to the Koreans at each stage of the denuclearization. What should it be? How far will Trump go? Trump has a difficult task of striking the perfect balance between giving too little and too much. And here is what Trump should offer at each stage.
For starters, the US doesn’t have to give too much. Considering that the freezing stage is underway, Trump needs to maintain the positive atmosphere and not do anything which would aggravate Kim. Many criticized the US president for being too complimentary of the North Korean dictator, but perhaps that is not so bad after all. The second phase is the large one for the Koreans, and America would have to step up. North Korea would have to shut down all of the existing nuclear facilities, and the inspectors would enter each and every one to supervise this process. Of course, some of the facilities could be hidden, but let’s hope that this would not happen. Also, we would like to point out that this is not the permanent dismantling of the sites, which is why America must not be too generous. They need to offer something that is reversible if Kim decides to be courageous and discard the deal. Instead of eliminating sanctions, the US can withdraw them for several moments so that they can be imposed again if something goes wrong.
During the third stage, North Korea would be giving up too much. Even though they would have the right to keep the warheads, they would give up on investments which are worth billions of dollars and this would be a huge slap to the country’s economy. The US sanctions need to stay in place, while the UN sanctions are to be lifted. As the third phase is gradually heading to completion, the UN needs to lift sanctions accordingly. Once the entire process has reached the finale, should the UN lift all of their sanctions. In the end, we have reached the final fourth stage of the denuclearization. North Korea will ship the warheads out of the country, and they will no longer pose any threat to the world. As a reward, the US will lift the sanctions, freeing the country and allowing them to engage in trade with the rest of the world. This would also create room for major loans and grants from World Bank and the US Agency for International Development.
After the denuclearization process, which will last a long time, North Korea will engage in serious economic changes and their borders will be more open to the world. After that, Trump, or any other American president at the time should initiate talks about human rights. It is another topic which needs to be addressed, but we are going one step at a time. North Korea would finally have a chance to become the part of a free world and develop without any restraints. What is your take on the topic? Could this four-stage denuclearization process be the right thing for the world?
Source: brookings.edu
