Trump faced a decision which will shape the future of the world. He had the option to either stay in the Iran deal or withdraw from it and allow Iran to revive its nuclear program. On Tuesday, Donald Trump made an announcement, and all eyes were on Washington. POTUS decided to withdraw from the agreement and here are the possible outcomes of this decision.
What happens with Iran?
For the first time, the sanctions on Iran were imposed in 2012 when the country’s oils exports were hit hard. This forced Iran to negotiate with America and its European allies, and they came up with the Iran deal. The sanctions were lifted, and the oil exports jumped to 2.6 million barrels per day. Now Trump would like to do the same – introduce the sanctions which would force Iran to submit to a new agreement which favors America more, but this is not 2012, and the circumstances are different. Even if the sanctions are imposed once again, they would be enforced in six months, according to the US law, and Iran would still be able to export oil to countries such as China and India, as they would not support the sanctions imposed by the US.
What happens with allies in Europe?
Trump has already worsened the alliance between America and European countries. He has threatened to introduce steel tariffs, and the US withdrew from the Paris climate agreement. Great Britain, France, and Germany, the US most important allies in Europe, are going to stick together, and they consider America’s withdrawal to be the violation of the deal. On several occasions, the leaders of these countries pointed out that they would not pull out of the deal and they would do everything to protect the European companies that are operating in Iran.
However, the agreement is endangered with the US pulling out. Despite the fact that the European countries will try to prevent the sanctions from applying to their companies, most of the businesses will have to choose to access the American market or stick with the Iranian one. And most of these businesses will opt for the former, therefore harming the Iranian economy.
What is Iran’s response?
The Iranian President Hassan Rouhani and the government will do everything to comply with the deal even after America gets out. Initially. So far, they have not broken the agreement, and they will do everything in their power to keep the deal valid since everyone but the United States wants to stay in. However, Rouhani’s political opponents have criticized this deal, and the economic benefits the country has from it since the economy of Iran remain slugging and fragile. Their economy should benefit from the investments from Europe, but the European investors are expected to flee should the US impose their sanctions leaving Iran stranded. This would force Iran to withdraw from the agreement as well and revive its nuclear program.
To do this, they would have to kick out international inspectors who have kept a close eye to Iran’s nuclear program, according to the Western intelligence agencies. Iran’s stockpiles of uranium are high, and according to the estimates, which vary, the country could build a nuclear bomb within a year. That way, Teheran would successfully revive its nuclear program, jeopardizing every nation in the region.
Based on everything you can read here, you can conclude whether it is better for the US to stay in the deal or not. Leaving the agreement is a dangerous move that could hurt everyone involved. America’s position in the Middle East will be harmed, Iran would be under economic sanctions, but they would be forced to strengthen their position with the nuclear weapon and defend their land. Meanwhile, the relationship between the US and Europe will definitely deteriorate while European investors would have to look for another place to do business.
Source: foreignpolicy.com
